- GÉrard Roland
- 1. A review of the situation: a Union marked by macro-economic and internal industrial imbalances.
- Abstracts - Persée
- Integrating Europe: The Transition Economies at Stake
Participation in the course does not require any preconditions, however, basic economic knowledge would be an advantage. Do you have technical problems? Write to us: coursera hse. There will be 5 parts of video-lectures of minutes length. You can use recommended literature to go deeper in learning this module. After you watch the video-lectures you are to complete the third quiz. We look forward to seeing you in class! Best wishes, Your course team. Economics of Transition and Emerging Markets. Enroll for Free. From the lesson.
The role of external actors in post-communist transition and economic reforms in Asia. Almost all Central Banks have price stability as their main mandate. Monetary policy underwent crucial changes as countries switched from direct to indirect instruments of monetary policy. The monetary and financial environment has changed as well, but in some countries a lot remains to be done in those areas.
The future of Central Banks in transition depends very much on the relations of countries with EU. But, even when transition central banks cede their monetary functions to the ECB, they will have an important role to play.
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This paper deals with the design of appropriate Central Banking arrangements and exchange rate regimes for those CEECs that are candidates for full membership in the EU. We give an overview of the existing arrangements and point out to which extent monetary arrangements are restricted by conditions for entry both into the EU and into the EMU. Furthermore we investigate to which degree countries are fulfilling the accession criteria and compare their performance with the performance of earlier EU joiners. After concluding that the accession criteria do not necessarily favour a particular monetary regime, we analyse the pros and cons of the two regimes widely believed to be most stable - currency boards or inflation targeting.
1. A review of the situation: a Union marked by macro-economic and internal industrial imbalances.
Under either regime tensions are likely to arise from the attempt to meet the accession criteria of a low inflation rate and a stable exchange rate. In this paper, we consider the evolving role of exchange rate policy in countries where transition is now successfully established.
In particular, we discuss the exit strategy for those transition economies that initially had relied on the exchange rate as the principal nominal anchor. First, we provide the background to the exit problem. We discuss how this problem might in principle be solved. Then we examine evidence from three leading, but contrasting, transition economies in Central Europe : Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary. The purpose of our discussion is to consider the costs and benefits associated with each of these different methods of exit from the original exchange rate regime.
The CEECs candidates to join the EU are facing an original situation as they decide which exchange rate regime to adopt.
They have to stabilize their economy while continuing the transition towards a market economy. They also have to take into account the institutional consequences of the relatively near-term prospect of integration within the EU, followed by membership of a monetary union with stringent demands in terms of price stability. This article addresses the issue of this particular institutional framework. Then it gives a general explanation of the process to illustrate the choice of exchange rate regime by most CEECs from the outset of transition to future entry in ERM II.
We consider the strategies adopted through the prism of this analytical framework. JEL classifications : F31, P Despite the fact that Hungary did not opt for a shock therapy at the beginning of the s to turn its planned economy into a market economy, the so-called gradualist transition gave rise to a brutal economic and social shock.
Abstracts - Persée
In order to prevent the crisis, the government launched a massive, heterodox stabilisation programme. This article presents the Hungarian transition examining the disinflation, monetary and interest rate policy in this country. During the last ten years, transition countries had to rebuild from scratch stock exchanges which were put to a standstill more than fifty years ago. Progress in building stock markets is lagging in the process of transition, when they should play a major role. Capitalisation as a percentage of GDP is weak in comparison with Western developed economies.
As stock exchanges started up in the wake of privatisation, their organisation was largely shaped according to the way privatisation occurred. Moreover stabilisation was a precondition for building domestic savings and attracting foreign investors, key features for an active market. These stock markets are now facing a new transition period. At the same time, more international openness, fostered by the EU accession process, should bring constraints and challenges for those markets.
Eastern countries have developed new banking systems. All of them show signs of fragility still but to various degrees. Management risk remains a very significant issue and tackling this issue has been leading to a growing diversity in the performance of the banking systems. A few countries in Central Europe have governments which went through a painful and costly restructuring of their large banks before launching their privatisation. The presence of foreign banks already starts supporting the reintermediation of savings and loans. The qualitative dimension of their role is already very visible, the quantitative dimension i.
Is this a model for most CIS countries, which have missed so far opportunities to create a robust banking system?
A micro and macroeconomic analysis of the Polish, Hungarian and Czech banking sectors shows that weaknesses are not significant enough to be able to trigger full-fledged systemic crises : in all three countries, these industries have gone through a deep restructuring and consolidation process, supplemented by better prudential and supervision regulations and lower vulnerabilities to exogenous shocks.
However, the comparison between the three countries highlights large differences : the Czech banking sector still appears more fragile, with likely difficulties if the European economy slows abruptly ; the strength of the Polish sector precludes any systemic shock, even if the sensitivity to potential currency depreciation remains high ; the weaknesses apparent in the Hungarian system is more related to the intensity of competition and high corporate leverage, but compensating factors reduce systemic risks. Having announced changes to its legal and tax systems, Serbia must follow up by tackling the reform of the banking sector.
This article describes first the Serbian economy after ten years of war and international sanctions.
The authors present also an overview of the Serbian banking scene in which public sector is still very much to the fore and propose different strategies for restructuring the Serbian banking sector. JEL classifications : G21, P All debates on privatisation and relations between production and employment show the importance of small firms in the transformation process of the Eastern European countries, considering contribution to growth as well as changes in the labour market.
But these small firms are of two different types, which go from the traditional survival activity to the dynamic start-up.
Integrating Europe: The Transition Economies at Stake
This contribution aims firstly at analysing which forms the small firms can take in the economies in transition, which leads to show the role of the differential of income between the self-employed and the salaried employees in the transition process. Secondly, it presents the empirical elements, which allow us to make a real evaluation of the mentioned processes possible and a validation of the conclusions, suggested by comparing two polar cases of transition, Poland and Romania.
This article examines several aspects of the standard of living in transition countries and shows how developments have differed not only across the region but also across gender, age and social groups. The most striking feature is the substantial increase in mortality - particularly among adult males. While mortality rates have begun to fall in recent years, their dramatic increase in the first phase of transition was an indication of the extent of social upheaval.
An examination of the incidence of poverty reveals that the poor are concentrated in households with many children and those dependent on pensions or other State benefits. The great challenge for governments in coming years is to provide an environment enabling these social groups to become integrated into the market economy and to design social protection mechanisms that are both well targeted and affordable. JEL classifications : I00, P It is easy to get a well-detailed and documented picture of the different ways in which corporate governance, in Russia, has failed.
There are, however, very few analysis that go explicitly into what mechanisms brought about this failure. One of the first major thesis has been the legal explanation. The aim of this article is to refute the legal argument or at least to show how it falls short of explaining this failure. We first outline the legal argument as it was recently developed in different texts, highlighting its theoretical stakes.
We analyse the main legal problems in the Russian transition, as well as the origins of these problems. To achieve this, legal evolutions are discussed, and the main obstacles to a satisfactory legal development are shown.
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